Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 20.022491 21.718153 23.545977 25.672228 28.089693 30.767124 33.976740
2025-09-28 17.748301 20.168555 22.965364 26.477014 30.827693 36.122906 43.187460
2025-10-05 15.689644 18.407779 21.705475 26.082962 31.872947 39.472806 50.577236
2025-10-12 14.354583 17.270789 20.949277 26.061609 33.212191 43.250947 59.225214
2025-10-19 13.401011 16.465551 20.460344 26.237469 34.731293 47.422717 69.366858
2025-10-26 12.466426 15.571010 19.724603 25.927466 35.432436 50.413914 78.321087
2025-11-02 11.737726 14.875550 19.172178 25.778740 36.299278 53.751669 88.774775
2025-11-09 11.157266 14.328224 18.763634 25.771821 37.348359 57.539749 101.267460
2025-11-16 10.631169 13.812225 18.346369 25.687978 38.229348 61.161013 114.686679
2025-11-23 10.174264 13.359635 17.979214 25.631617 39.127143 64.964796 130.047190
2025-11-30 9.750175 12.924655 17.600586 25.508627 39.872354 68.598770 146.628725
2025-12-07 9.421033 12.607517 17.375285 25.611074 41.034924 73.347516 168.808619
2025-12-14 9.056194 12.228032 17.044787 25.535478 41.917609 77.867412 193.853741
2025-12-21 8.897829 12.154038 17.195440 26.323247 44.656071 87.565120 245.245296
2025-12-28 8.516233 11.712604 16.718542 25.929315 44.889404 91.107928 276.437725
2026-01-04 8.236691 11.415146 16.457731 25.907175 45.917653 97.095393 325.917084
2026-01-11 8.014500 11.195493 16.310334 26.081222 47.408416 104.907355 397.046876
2026-01-18 7.725515 10.853754 15.933064 25.773804 47.742783 109.404978 457.085404
2026-01-25 7.484004 10.577053 15.650476 25.626331 48.436833 115.328499 540.887608
2026-02-01 7.281603 10.354338 15.447827 25.619463 49.476382 122.853359 660.551957
2026-02-08 7.080499 10.124347 15.218404 25.536337 50.313562 130.058099 806.080000
2026-02-15 6.896004 9.913687 15.011141 25.480459 51.217053 137.969369 1002.525618
2026-02-22 6.712971 9.697644 14.782123 25.358521 51.929095 145.516398 1249.321701